ATH vs RAC
Athletic Club (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 55.1% fair 1.82
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
RAC win 22.9% fair 4.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.6% / 21.7% / 21.7%.
Expected Goals
ATH
1.98
—
1.15
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.6% | fair 2.53 |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 RAC | 10.0% | |
| ATH 2-1 RAC | 9.9% | |
| ATH 1-0 RAC | 8.7% | |
| ATH 2-0 RAC | 8.6% | |
| ATH 3-1 RAC | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).