ATM vs GET
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Getafe · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 59.9% fair 1.67
Draw 23.7% fair 4.21
GET win 16.3% fair 6.12
Expected Goals
ATM
1.68
—
0.69
GET
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.3% | fair 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
| Both teams to score | 40.6% | fair 2.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-0 GET | 15.7% | |
| ATM 2-0 GET | 13.2% | |
| ATM 1-1 GET | 10.8% | |
| ATM 0-0 GET | 9.3% | |
| ATM 2-1 GET | 9.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: GET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).