RSO vs ALA
Real Sociedad (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RSO win 48.2% fair 2.07
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
ALA win 29.0% fair 3.45
Expected Goals
RSO
1.85
—
1.38
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.4% | fair 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 ALA | 10.1% | |
| RSO 2-1 ALA | 9.3% | |
| RSO 1-0 ALA | 7.3% | |
| RSO 1-2 ALA | 7.0% | |
| RSO 2-0 ALA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).