RAY vs FCB
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAY win 14.2% fair 7.05
Draw 15.4% fair 6.48
FCB win 70.4% fair 1.42
Expected Goals
RAY
1.05
—
2.82
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.2% | fair 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.8% | fair 3.88 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-2 FCB | 8.7% | |
| RAY 0-2 FCB | 8.3% | |
| RAY 1-3 FCB | 8.2% | |
| RAY 0-3 FCB | 7.8% | |
| RAY 1-1 FCB | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).