RAC vs BET
Racing Santander (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 26.6% fair 3.76
Draw 21.6% fair 4.64
BET win 51.8% fair 1.93
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.5% / 21.2% / 55.3%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.29
—
2.06
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.1% | fair 2.85 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-2 BET | 9.6% | |
| RAC 1-1 BET | 9.3% | |
| RAC 0-2 BET | 7.5% | |
| RAC 0-1 BET | 7.3% | |
| RAC 1-3 BET | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).