VIL vs MLG
Villarreal (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 67.1% fair 1.49
Draw 18.2% fair 5.49
MLG win 14.7% fair 6.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 70.6% / 17.2% / 12.2%.
Expected Goals
VIL
2.38
—
0.88
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.8% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-0 MLG | 10.9% | |
| VIL 2-1 MLG | 9.6% | |
| VIL 1-0 MLG | 9.1% | |
| VIL 3-0 MLG | 8.6% | |
| VIL 1-1 MLG | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).