ESP vs ATH
Espanyol (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 39.3% fair 2.54
Draw 26.5% fair 3.77
ATH win 34.1% fair 2.93
Expected Goals
ESP
1.30
—
1.22
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 ATH | 12.7% | |
| ESP 1-0 ATH | 10.4% | |
| ESP 0-1 ATH | 9.8% | |
| ESP 2-1 ATH | 8.3% | |
| ESP 0-0 ATH | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).