CEL vs RMA
Celta Vigo (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CEL win 25.6% fair 3.90
Draw 24.1% fair 4.14
RMA win 50.2% fair 1.99
Expected Goals
CEL
1.06
—
1.69
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 RMA | 11.5% | |
| CEL 0-1 RMA | 10.9% | |
| CEL 1-2 RMA | 9.7% | |
| CEL 0-2 RMA | 9.2% | |
| CEL 1-0 RMA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).