SEV vs ELC
Sevilla (home) vs Elche · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SEV win 43.9% fair 2.28
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
ELC win 32.3% fair 3.10
Expected Goals
SEV
1.66
—
1.40
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.9% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 ELC | 10.9% | |
| SEV 2-1 ELC | 9.0% | |
| SEV 1-0 ELC | 7.7% | |
| SEV 1-2 ELC | 7.6% | |
| SEV 0-1 ELC | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).