VAL vs DEP
Valencia (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VAL win 43.7% fair 2.29
Draw 25.7% fair 3.88
DEP win 30.6% fair 3.27
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.3% / 26.0% / 30.7%.
Expected Goals
VAL
1.44
—
1.17
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 DEP | 12.4% | |
| VAL 1-0 DEP | 10.6% | |
| VAL 2-1 DEP | 8.9% | |
| VAL 0-1 DEP | 8.6% | |
| VAL 2-0 DEP | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).