EDGERATING
Methodology

BET vs LEV

Real Betis (home) vs Levante · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window

Match Outcome

BET win 56.9% fair 1.76
Draw 21.3% fair 4.70
LEV win 21.8% fair 4.59

Expected Goals

BET 2.06 — 1.16 LEV
Over 2.5 goals62.5%fair 1.60
Under 2.5 goals37.5%fair 2.67
Both teams to score60.0%fair 1.67

Most Likely Scores

BET 2-1 LEV9.8%
BET 1-1 LEV9.5%
BET 2-0 LEV8.5%
BET 1-0 LEV8.2%
BET 3-1 LEV6.8%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 4.0 4.6 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1
1 8.2 9.5 5.5 2.1 0.6 0.2
2 8.5 9.8 5.7 2.2 0.6 0.2
3 5.8 6.8 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.1
4 3.0 3.5 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1
5+ 1.8 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0

Rows: BET goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

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