ESP vs RAC
Espanyol (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 51.6% fair 1.94
Draw 22.9% fair 4.37
RAC win 25.6% fair 3.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.5% / 22.7% / 24.8%.
Expected Goals
ESP
1.86
—
1.21
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 RAC | 10.5% | |
| ESP 2-1 RAC | 9.7% | |
| ESP 1-0 RAC | 8.6% | |
| ESP 2-0 RAC | 8.0% | |
| ESP 1-2 RAC | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).