ALA vs ATH
Alavés (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ALA win 41.4% fair 2.42
Draw 26.3% fair 3.81
ATH win 32.3% fair 3.09
Expected Goals
ALA
1.36
—
1.19
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 ATH | 12.6% | |
| ALA 1-0 ATH | 10.6% | |
| ALA 0-1 ATH | 9.3% | |
| ALA 2-1 ATH | 8.6% | |
| ALA 0-0 ATH | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).