DEP vs GET
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Getafe · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 40.5% fair 2.47
Draw 28.7% fair 3.48
GET win 30.8% fair 3.25
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.6% / 29.5% / 30.9%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.15
—
0.98
GET
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.0% | fair 2.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64.0% | fair 1.56 |
| Both teams to score | 42.8% | fair 2.34 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-0 GET | 13.6% | |
| DEP 1-1 GET | 13.4% | |
| DEP 0-0 GET | 11.8% | |
| DEP 0-1 GET | 11.6% | |
| DEP 2-0 GET | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: GET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).