OSA vs SEV
Osasuna (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 39.0% fair 2.57
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
SEV win 36.1% fair 2.77
Expected Goals
OSA
1.44
—
1.41
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 SEV | 11.7% | |
| OSA 2-1 SEV | 8.5% | |
| OSA 1-0 SEV | 8.3% | |
| OSA 1-2 SEV | 8.3% | |
| OSA 0-1 SEV | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).