RAC vs RAY
Racing Santander (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 37.0% fair 2.70
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
RAY win 39.1% fair 2.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.5% / 23.9% / 40.6%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.48
—
1.60
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.6% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 RAY | 10.9% | |
| RAC 1-2 RAY | 8.7% | |
| RAC 2-1 RAY | 8.1% | |
| RAC 0-1 RAY | 7.3% | |
| RAC 1-0 RAY | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).