CEL vs ESP
Celta Vigo (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CEL win 49.5% fair 2.02
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
ESP win 24.6% fair 4.06
Expected Goals
CEL
1.49
—
0.95
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-0 ESP | 13.0% | |
| CEL 1-1 ESP | 12.3% | |
| CEL 2-0 ESP | 9.7% | |
| CEL 2-1 ESP | 9.2% | |
| CEL 0-0 ESP | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).