OSA vs ATM
Osasuna (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 24.8% fair 4.03
Draw 23.7% fair 4.21
ATM win 51.4% fair 1.94
Expected Goals
OSA
1.04
—
1.73
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 ATM | 11.3% | |
| OSA 0-1 ATM | 10.9% | |
| OSA 1-2 ATM | 9.8% | |
| OSA 0-2 ATM | 9.4% | |
| OSA 1-0 ATM | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).