VAL vs ALA
Valencia (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VAL win 38.7% fair 2.58
Draw 26.4% fair 3.79
ALA win 34.9% fair 2.87
Expected Goals
VAL
1.30
—
1.25
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 ALA | 12.7% | |
| VAL 1-0 ALA | 10.2% | |
| VAL 0-1 ALA | 9.8% | |
| VAL 2-1 ALA | 8.2% | |
| VAL 1-2 ALA | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).