CEL vs RAY
Celta Vigo (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CEL win 49.5% fair 2.02
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
RAY win 24.9% fair 4.02
Expected Goals
CEL
1.52
—
0.98
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-0 RAY | 12.5% | |
| CEL 1-1 RAY | 12.2% | |
| CEL 2-0 RAY | 9.5% | |
| CEL 2-1 RAY | 9.3% | |
| CEL 0-0 RAY | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).