RMA vs ATH
Real Madrid (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RMA win 67.8% fair 1.48
Draw 18.2% fair 5.48
ATH win 14.0% fair 7.16
Expected Goals
RMA
2.32
—
0.86
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.3% | fair 2.61 |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 ATH | 11.1% | |
| RMA 2-1 ATH | 9.6% | |
| RMA 1-0 ATH | 9.6% | |
| RMA 3-0 ATH | 8.6% | |
| RMA 1-1 ATH | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).