SEV vs ESP
Sevilla (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SEV win 46.5% fair 2.15
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
ESP win 28.9% fair 3.46
Expected Goals
SEV
1.61
—
1.21
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.5% | fair 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 ESP | 11.6% | |
| SEV 1-0 ESP | 9.6% | |
| SEV 2-1 ESP | 9.3% | |
| SEV 2-0 ESP | 7.7% | |
| SEV 0-1 ESP | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).