ELC vs DEP
Elche (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELC win 49.9% fair 2.00
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
DEP win 26.3% fair 3.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.6% / 23.8% / 25.7%.
Expected Goals
ELC
1.73
—
1.16
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.9% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 DEP | 11.2% | |
| ELC 2-1 DEP | 9.6% | |
| ELC 1-0 DEP | 9.6% | |
| ELC 2-0 DEP | 8.3% | |
| ELC 1-2 DEP | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).