LEV vs MLG
Levante (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEV win 54.7% fair 1.83
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
MLG win 22.9% fair 4.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.3% / 22.0% / 21.7%.
Expected Goals
LEV
1.93
—
1.11
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.4% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 MLG | 10.3% | |
| LEV 2-1 MLG | 9.9% | |
| LEV 1-0 MLG | 9.2% | |
| LEV 2-0 MLG | 8.9% | |
| LEV 3-1 MLG | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).