DEP vs MLG
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 68% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 50.0% fair 2.00
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
MLG win 25.6% fair 3.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.9% / 24.5% / 24.6%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.65
—
1.07
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.9% | fair 2.05 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 MLG | 11.6% | |
| DEP 1-0 MLG | 10.9% | |
| DEP 2-1 MLG | 9.6% | |
| DEP 2-0 MLG | 9.0% | |
| DEP 0-1 MLG | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).