FCB vs ATM
Barcelona (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 87% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 64.3% fair 1.56
Draw 18.1% fair 5.53
ATM win 17.6% fair 5.67
Expected Goals
FCB
2.52
—
1.22
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.0% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.0% | fair 3.58 |
| Both teams to score | 64.7% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 2-1 ATM | 9.2% | |
| FCB 3-1 ATM | 7.7% | |
| FCB 2-0 ATM | 7.6% | |
| FCB 1-1 ATM | 7.3% | |
| FCB 3-0 ATM | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).