GET vs VIL
Getafe (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
GET win 28.2% fair 3.54
Draw 26.9% fair 3.71
VIL win 44.8% fair 2.23
Expected Goals
GET
0.97
—
1.38
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | fair 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | fair 2.15 |
Most Likely Scores
| GET 0-1 VIL | 13.1% | |
| GET 1-1 VIL | 12.8% | |
| GET 0-0 VIL | 9.5% | |
| GET 1-0 VIL | 9.2% | |
| GET 0-2 VIL | 9.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.1 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: GET goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).