FCB vs VAL
Barcelona (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 82.3% fair 1.21
Draw 10.4% fair 9.57
VAL win 7.2% fair 13.81
Expected Goals
FCB
3.45
—
0.82
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.9% | fair 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.1% | fair 4.98 |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 3-0 VAL | 9.6% | |
| FCB 2-0 VAL | 8.3% | |
| FCB 4-0 VAL | 8.3% | |
| FCB 3-1 VAL | 7.9% | |
| FCB 2-1 VAL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 11.7 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).