MLG vs ALA
Málaga (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 32.3% fair 3.10
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
ALA win 42.2% fair 2.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.9% / 25.9% / 44.3%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.16
—
1.47
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 ALA | 12.3% | |
| MLG 0-1 ALA | 10.6% | |
| MLG 1-2 ALA | 9.0% | |
| MLG 1-0 ALA | 8.4% | |
| MLG 0-2 ALA | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).