VIL vs RAC
Villarreal (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 67.1% fair 1.49
Draw 17.3% fair 5.78
RAC win 15.6% fair 6.40
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 70.4% / 16.3% / 13.4%.
Expected Goals
VIL
2.62
—
1.08
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.5% | fair 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.5% | fair 3.51 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-1 RAC | 9.2% | |
| VIL 2-0 RAC | 8.5% | |
| VIL 3-1 RAC | 8.0% | |
| VIL 3-0 RAC | 7.4% | |
| VIL 1-1 RAC | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).