ATM vs ESP
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 61.5% fair 1.63
Draw 21.3% fair 4.69
ESP win 17.2% fair 5.81
Expected Goals
ATM
1.97
—
0.87
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-0 ESP | 11.5% | |
| ATM 2-0 ESP | 11.3% | |
| ATM 1-1 ESP | 10.0% | |
| ATM 2-1 ESP | 9.9% | |
| ATM 3-0 ESP | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).