OSA vs DEP
Osasuna (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 44.2% fair 2.26
Draw 25.5% fair 3.93
DEP win 30.4% fair 3.29
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.8% / 25.7% / 30.5%.
Expected Goals
OSA
1.48
—
1.19
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 DEP | 12.2% | |
| OSA 1-0 DEP | 10.3% | |
| OSA 2-1 DEP | 9.0% | |
| OSA 0-1 DEP | 8.3% | |
| OSA 2-0 DEP | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).