RAY vs RMA
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAY win 19.9% fair 5.02
Draw 20.8% fair 4.82
RMA win 59.3% fair 1.69
Expected Goals
RAY
1.01
—
2.08
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.4% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-2 RMA | 9.9% | |
| RAY 0-2 RMA | 9.9% | |
| RAY 1-1 RMA | 9.6% | |
| RAY 0-1 RMA | 9.5% | |
| RAY 1-3 RMA | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).