SEV vs ATH
Sevilla (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SEV win 43.1% fair 2.32
Draw 24.9% fair 4.01
ATH win 32.0% fair 3.13
Expected Goals
SEV
1.52
—
1.29
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 ATH | 11.8% | |
| SEV 1-0 ATH | 9.2% | |
| SEV 2-1 ATH | 9.0% | |
| SEV 0-1 ATH | 7.7% | |
| SEV 1-2 ATH | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).