ESP vs VIL
Espanyol (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 30.6% fair 3.27
Draw 24.4% fair 4.09
VIL win 44.9% fair 2.23
Expected Goals
ESP
1.23
—
1.62
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 VIL | 11.5% | |
| ESP 0-1 VIL | 9.4% | |
| ESP 1-2 VIL | 9.3% | |
| ESP 0-2 VIL | 7.6% | |
| ESP 1-0 VIL | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).