ALA vs FCB
Alavés (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ALA win 15.3% fair 6.52
Draw 16.3% fair 6.12
FCB win 68.3% fair 1.46
Expected Goals
ALA
1.07
—
2.70
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.5% | fair 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.5% | fair 3.63 |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-2 FCB | 9.0% | |
| ALA 0-2 FCB | 8.4% | |
| ALA 1-3 FCB | 8.1% | |
| ALA 0-3 FCB | 7.6% | |
| ALA 1-1 FCB | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).