ELC vs RAY
Elche (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELC win 46.7% fair 2.14
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
RAY win 28.9% fair 3.46
Expected Goals
ELC
1.63
—
1.22
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 RAY | 11.5% | |
| ELC 1-0 RAY | 9.4% | |
| ELC 2-1 RAY | 9.4% | |
| ELC 2-0 RAY | 7.7% | |
| ELC 0-1 RAY | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).