VAL vs SEV
Valencia (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VAL win 38.5% fair 2.60
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
SEV win 36.3% fair 2.75
Expected Goals
VAL
1.41
—
1.39
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 SEV | 11.9% | |
| VAL 1-0 SEV | 8.5% | |
| VAL 0-1 SEV | 8.5% | |
| VAL 2-1 SEV | 8.4% | |
| VAL 1-2 SEV | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).