RSO vs MLG
Real Sociedad (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RSO win 61.0% fair 1.64
Draw 19.7% fair 5.09
MLG win 19.3% fair 5.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 63.7% / 18.9% / 17.4%.
Expected Goals
RSO
2.32
—
1.14
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.9% | fair 3.04 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 2-1 MLG | 9.6% | |
| RSO 2-0 MLG | 8.5% | |
| RSO 1-1 MLG | 8.3% | |
| RSO 3-1 MLG | 7.4% | |
| RSO 1-0 MLG | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).