RAC vs CEL
Racing Santander (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 30.0% fair 3.34
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
CEL win 45.9% fair 2.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.4% / 24.1% / 48.5%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.20
—
1.68
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 CEL | 11.3% | |
| RAC 1-2 CEL | 9.5% | |
| RAC 0-1 CEL | 9.4% | |
| RAC 0-2 CEL | 7.9% | |
| RAC 2-1 CEL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).