DEP vs ATM
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 24.9% fair 4.01
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
ATM win 51.7% fair 1.94
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 21.7% / 23.3% / 55.0%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.03
—
1.78
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 ATM | 11.1% | |
| DEP 0-1 ATM | 10.8% | |
| DEP 1-2 ATM | 9.8% | |
| DEP 0-2 ATM | 9.6% | |
| DEP 1-0 ATM | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).