MLG vs RMA
Málaga (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 15.3% fair 6.56
Draw 17.0% fair 5.87
RMA win 67.7% fair 1.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 10.6% / 16.0% / 73.5%.
Expected Goals
MLG
0.84
—
2.50
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.2% | fair 2.84 |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 0-2 RMA | 11.1% | |
| MLG 1-2 RMA | 9.3% | |
| MLG 0-3 RMA | 9.2% | |
| MLG 0-1 RMA | 8.9% | |
| MLG 1-3 RMA | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 4.7 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 3.9 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).