FCB vs ELC
Barcelona (home) vs Elche · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 79.6% fair 1.26
Draw 11.5% fair 8.67
ELC win 8.8% fair 11.32
Expected Goals
FCB
3.43
—
0.98
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 81.6% | fair 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 18.4% | fair 5.44 |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 3-0 ELC | 8.2% | |
| FCB 3-1 ELC | 8.0% | |
| FCB 2-0 ELC | 7.1% | |
| FCB 2-1 ELC | 7.0% | |
| FCB 4-0 ELC | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).