ATM vs RSO
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 60.0% fair 1.67
Draw 19.9% fair 5.03
RSO win 20.1% fair 4.97
Expected Goals
ATM
2.27
—
1.20
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.3% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.7% | fair 3.06 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 2-1 RSO | 9.6% | |
| ATM 1-1 RSO | 8.5% | |
| ATM 2-0 RSO | 8.0% | |
| ATM 3-1 RSO | 7.3% | |
| ATM 1-0 RSO | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).