ATM vs RAC
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 70.6% fair 1.42
Draw 16.3% fair 6.14
RAC win 13.1% fair 7.61
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 74.3% / 15.1% / 10.6%.
Expected Goals
ATM
2.66
—
0.92
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.6% | fair 3.26 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 2-0 RAC | 9.9% | |
| ATM 2-1 RAC | 9.1% | |
| ATM 3-0 RAC | 8.7% | |
| ATM 3-1 RAC | 8.0% | |
| ATM 1-0 RAC | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).