ESP vs BET
Espanyol (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 31.9% fair 3.14
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
BET win 43.0% fair 2.32
Expected Goals
ESP
1.22
—
1.53
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 BET | 12.0% | |
| ESP 0-1 BET | 9.8% | |
| ESP 1-2 BET | 9.1% | |
| ESP 1-0 BET | 7.8% | |
| ESP 0-2 BET | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).