VAL vs MLG
Valencia (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VAL win 50.6% fair 1.98
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
MLG win 24.9% fair 4.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.4% / 24.7% / 24.0%.
Expected Goals
VAL
1.63
—
1.03
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 MLG | 11.7% | |
| VAL 1-0 MLG | 11.4% | |
| VAL 2-1 MLG | 9.6% | |
| VAL 2-0 MLG | 9.3% | |
| VAL 0-1 MLG | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).