MLG vs ELC
Málaga (home) vs Elche · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 31.4% fair 3.18
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
ELC win 44.2% fair 2.26
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.8% / 24.5% / 46.7%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.23
—
1.63
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 ELC | 11.5% | |
| MLG 0-1 ELC | 9.4% | |
| MLG 1-2 ELC | 9.4% | |
| MLG 0-2 ELC | 7.6% | |
| MLG 1-0 ELC | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).