RAY vs ATM
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAY win 26.5% fair 3.78
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
ATM win 49.3% fair 2.03
Expected Goals
RAY
1.08
—
1.67
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 ATM | 11.5% | |
| RAY 0-1 ATM | 10.7% | |
| RAY 1-2 ATM | 9.6% | |
| RAY 0-2 ATM | 8.9% | |
| RAY 1-0 ATM | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).