RAC vs ATH
Racing Santander (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 34.1% fair 2.93
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
ATH win 41.9% fair 2.39
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.1% / 24.0% / 43.9%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.38
—
1.65
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 ATH | 11.0% | |
| RAC 1-2 ATH | 9.1% | |
| RAC 0-1 ATH | 8.0% | |
| RAC 2-1 ATH | 7.6% | |
| RAC 1-0 ATH | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).